S&P 500 Overextended on Fiscal Stimulus Optimism? Biden Leads Trump

S&P 500 Overextended on Fiscal Stimulus Optimism? Biden Leads Trump

2020 Election, S&P 500, Fiscal Stimulus Talks, Biden-Trump Unfold - Speaking FactorsBiden continues to steer Trump by vital m

Biden continues to steer Trump in key swing states
Biden guarantees to unify the nation as he unveils plan to revitalize manufacturing
Will Black voters end up for Joe Biden?

2020 Election, S&P 500, Fiscal Stimulus Talks, Biden-Trump Unfold – Speaking Factors

  • Biden continues to steer Trump by vital margin – however what’s the catch?
  • Fiscal stimulus talks are sending combined alerts as traders get whipsawed
  • S&P 500 nearing all-time excessive at 3588.1 – will worth motion change into timid?


It’s formally lower than three weeks till the 2020 election on November 3, with polls reinforcing the identical narrative main into the primary presidential debate: Joe Biden will take the White Home. RealClearPolitics betting odds present the previous Vice President with the widest unfold ever recorded between him and the incumbent President Donald Trump.

2020 US Election Polls

Chart showing 2020 election polls

Source: RealClearPolitics

Mr. Biden’s lead over Trump was amplified after the primary debate and was additional strengthened after Mr. Trump contracted Covid-19 and was briefly hospitalized. A number of of his aides have additionally examined constructive for the coronavirus. With these developments, the general public’s confidence in President Trump took successful and in contrast solid Mr. Biden in a extra favorable mild. Having mentioned all is, there’s a catch.

As a result of what statisticians name “differential partisan non-response” – a phenomenon by which a voter is much less more likely to solutions a pollster’s name if their most popular candidate is doing poorly – polling information could also be skewed. In consequence, traders could also be setting themselves up with a false sense of certainty, which if corrected and re-aligned with actuality could stir markets and catalyze bouts of volatility.

Fiscal Talks Sending Blended Alerts’

Markets initially jumped initially of the week over optimism about Congress passing one other fiscal stimulus bundle earlier than the November Three deadline. Nevertheless, conflicting messages from Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Chief Mitch McConnell have brought about equities to barely wobble. Shares spiked on information of progress, it’s not outlandish to counsel that they might decline as shortly if lawmakers hit a wall once more.

S&P 500 Evaluation

The S&P 500 is climbing alongside a steep uptrend after it discovered a backside in early October round 3197.5. The benchmark index is now approaching resistance at 3588.1 the place it topped earlier than spectacularly declining. Traders could begin to change into much less daring because the index creeps nearer to the important thing inflection level which is able to probably be mirrored as increasingly-timid worth motion till it both breaks via it or capitulates.

S&P 500 – Each day Chart

Chart showing S&P 500

S&P 500 chart created utilizing TradingView

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Forex Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the feedback part under or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter